10th July 2010

A network model for the short-term prediction of the evolution of cocaine consumption in Spain in the next few years

posted in Investigación, JCR, Modelos Matemáticos, Publicaciones, Sociología |

Published paper “A network model for the short-term prediction of the evolution of cocaine consumption in Spain in the next few years” (I.C. Lombana, M. Rubio, E. Sánchez, F.J. Santonja, J. Villanueva-Oller), i the Mathematical and Computer Modelling nº 52, ISSN 0895-7177, pp. 1023-1029 (year 2010)

Cocaine consumption is a social problem with acute consequences and its dependency can be regarded as a health concern of social transmission. This fact leads us to develop the idea that its transmission dynamics can be studied using epidemiological mathematical models. Under this point of view, in this paper we propose a network model to study the short-term evolution of the cocaine consumer sub populations. The model parameters are obtained from data source and from an analogue continuous model. Sensitivity of the model parameters is studied. The parameters are associated with prevention and treatment policies and the sensitivity study gives us information about which parameters have more incidence on the future evolution of consumers. Results and discussion are also presented.

Keywords: Cocaine consumption; Network modelling; Short-term predictions; Confidence intervals