20th February 2014

Popular Support to Terrorist Organizations: A Short-Term Prediction based on a Dynamic Model applied to a Real Case

Published paper “Popular Support to Terrorist Organizations: A Short-Term Prediction based on a Dynamic Model applied to a Real Case ” (M. Ehrhardt, M. Peco, A. Tarazona, R. Villanueva, J. Villanueva-Oller) in the Mathematical Modeling in Engineering & Social Sciences, ISBN 978-1-63117-339-4, pp. 169-176 (year 2014)

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20th February 2014

RSV Modeling Using Genetic Algorithms in a Distributed Computing Environment Based on Cloud File Sharing

Published paper “RSV Modeling Using Genetic Algorithms in a Distributed Computing Environment Based on Cloud File Sharing” (J. Gabriel Garc?a Caro, Javier Villanueva-Oller, J. Ignacio Hidalgo) in the Mathematical Modeling in Engineering & Social Sciences, ISBN 978-1-63117-339-4, pp. 227-240 (year 2014)

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20th December 2010

Superordenadores virtuales y computación distribuida con BOINC

Published book chapter “Superordenadores virtuales y computación distribuida con BOINC” (D. Martín, J. Villanueva-Oller, M. Alberquilla, I. Contreras, I. Hidalgo) in the Anales de Ingeniería Técnica Informática de Sistemas nº 3, ISBN 978-84-937288-9-2, pp. 1-30 (year 2010). Ed. Felipe II Libros.

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20th December 2010

Seasonal Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemic in a Random Social Network

Published paper “Seasonal Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemic in a Random Social Network” (J. Díez-Domingo, J. Villanueva-Oller, L. Acevo, R.J. Villanueva, J.A. Moraño) in the Modelling for addictive behaviour, medicine and engineering 2010, ISBN 978-84-693-9537-0, pp. 1-4

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10th December 2009

Stochastic network modelling of the pressure of extreme groups in a society

Published book chapter “Stochastic network modelling of the pressure of extreme groups in a society” (F.J. Santonja, A.C. Tarazona, R.J. Villanueva, J. Villanueva-Oller), in the Modelling for Medicine, Business and Engineering 2009, ISBN 978-84-692-9972-2, pp. 222-233 (year 2009)

Extreme behaviour is produced by small groups but their actions have an impact in a large amount of people. The fear is the strategy developed by these groups to influence the decisions of the whole population in order to achieve their political goals.

The understanding of the transmission dynamics of such a type of extreme behaviours increases the knowledge of the mechanisms behind the evolution of cultural norms and values. Moreover, it can give us tools to know their evolution a priori, eventually disappearing or getting their objectives.

In this paper we propose a stochastic network mathematical model to study the ideological evolution of a society where an extreme group is present. The model is applied to a real situation. The parameters of the model are fi tted to real data and parameter sensitivity analysis is done using confidence intervals in order to find out what is the eff ect in the change of people’s ideology the changes in the model parameters.

Keywords: Extreme ideologies, Stochastic network modelling, Short-term predictions, Con fidence intervals.

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